
He caught 24 of 58 targets for 301 yards and both his touchdowns after landing with the Jets last year — now he gets a full season of Geno Smith instead of whoever Indy was rolling out, at a WR75 price.
Cheap picks I'm calling ahead of their price. The model recommends players the Board ranks meaningfully ahead of the market in round 10 or later; the final list is mine.

He caught 24 of 58 targets for 301 yards and both his touchdowns after landing with the Jets last year — now he gets a full season of Geno Smith instead of whoever Indy was rolling out, at a WR75 price.
Seven career touches, so I'll say it straight: this is a situation call. He's the No. 2 in Green Bay with Emanuel Wilson gone to Seattle, and Josh Jacobs' availability is a live question — charged in late August, league investigation open. If the job falls, it falls to Lloyd first. The market says RB46; my board says RB31.

He ran for 746 yards on 145 carries at 5.1 yards a pop last year in a change-of-pace role, and there's real chatter the Rams push this toward a 50/50 split — he's the best handcuff in football at a RB42 price.
6.3 yards a carry for his career, 8.4 before the knee, and the market has him RB60 because he's third on the Chargers' August depth chart. I'll admit it: he picked up a mild setback late in the preseason. But the team kept him on the active 53 instead of stashing him on IR, the new staff's last speed back finished top-six two years running in Miami, and nobody else in that room profiles for the role. Round-10 money on my board's RB46.
These are my picks. Many started as the model's calls — its backtest graded about 59% against a coin-flip floor of about 51% across the 2018–2025 drafts — and some are mine alone. All of them are mine to answer for: every pick is logged the day it publishes and graded when the season ends.
THE 2026 FILM ROOM · MY PICKS, MODEL-ASSISTED · EVERY PICK LOGGED ON PUBLISH AND GRADED AT SEASON’S END
Two players can share an ADP and be nothing alike. I measured how far a draft slot actually moves, by position and by round, across eight seasons.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026I priced every tight end pick against the guy you could have had for free. Only one range of the draft came back worth the pick.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026Everyone knows a 400-touch season breaks a running back. I measured it against seventeen years of data, and the thing everyone knows isn't there. Something else is.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026