Draft StrategyAUG 18, 2026
ADP Is a Promise at Receiver and a Suggestion at Tight End
Two players can share an ADP and be nothing alike. I measured how far a draft slot actually moves, by position and by round, across eight seasons.
Jon StoneDraft Season · 2026 · 16 days to kickoffRock-solid analysis.
Rock-solid analysis.
Ice-cold calls.
The Board: ranked, tiered, and priced, with the stat line under every pick. No hedging, no hot takes, nothing to configure — just a board you can draft on. Nothing to configure.
The Board · Top 5 OverallHALF PPR
- 01Jahmyr GibbsDETRB
- 02Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR
- 03Bijan RobinsonATLRB
- 04Jonathan TaylorINDRB
- 05Christian McCaffreySFRB
Draft Board
The 2026 Board · QBQuarterbacks
| RK | Player | Age | Bye | ADP | Pts | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01OVR 20 | Josh AllenBUF | 30 | 7 | 32.8 | 395.9 | T1 |
| 02OVR 40 | Lamar JacksonBAL | 29 | 13 | 55.5 | 362.3 | T2 |
| 03OVR 49 | Drake MayeNE | 24 | 11 | 50.9 | 355.0 | T2 |
| 04OVR 56 | Joe BurrowCIN | 29 | 6 | 56.8 | 345.4 | T3 |
| 05OVR 70 | Jayden DanielsWAS | 25 | 7 | 70.2 | 330.8 | T3 |
| 06OVR 85 | Jalen HurtsPHI | 28 | 10 | 78.8 | 310.8 | T4 |
| 07OVR 92 | Caleb WilliamsCHI | 24 | 10 | 91.5 | 303.4 | T4 |
| 08OVR 98 | Justin HerbertLAC | 28 | 7 | 109.9 | 298.8 | T4 |
- 01Josh AllenQB · BUF · AGE 30 · BYE 7 · ADP 32.8395.9
- 02Lamar JacksonQB · BAL · AGE 29 · BYE 13 · ADP 55.5362.3
- 03Drake MayeQB · NE · AGE 24 · BYE 11 · ADP 50.9355.0
- 04Joe BurrowQB · CIN · AGE 29 · BYE 6 · ADP 56.8345.4
- 05Jayden DanielsQB · WAS · AGE 25 · BYE 7 · ADP 70.2330.8
- 06Jalen HurtsQB · PHI · AGE 28 · BYE 10 · ADP 78.8310.8
Film Room
Where I’m off the market
ADP #122 · BOARD #86
Blake Corum
LARBHe ran for 746 yards on 145 carries at 5.1 yards a pop last year in a change-of-pace role, and there's real chatter the Rams push this toward a 50/50 split — he's the best handcuff in football at a RB35 price.
All Sleepers →ADP #159 · BOARD #126
Adonai Mitchell
NYJWRHe caught 24 of 58 targets for 301 yards and both his touchdowns after landing with the Jets last year — now he gets a full season of Geno Smith instead of whoever Indy was rolling out, at a WR74 price.
All Sleepers →ADP #129 · BOARD #162
Rashod Bateman
BALWRDraft-capital and target competition just got a lot heavier — Baltimore spent two of its first four picks on receivers, and Bateman is coming off the worst season of his career.
All Fades →Latest breakdowns
Draft Strategy
What a Tight End Pick Actually Buys
I priced every tight end pick against the guy you could have had for free. Only one range of the draft came back worth the pick.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026Draft Strategy
The Workhorse Cliff Is a Myth. The Birthday Isn't.
Everyone knows a 400-touch season breaks a running back. I measured it against seventeen years of data, and the thing everyone knows isn't there. Something else is.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026