
Miami released Tua and handed the offense to Malik Willis, who has six career starts. A shakier passing game means defenses can crowd the box against exactly the kind of back Achane is.
Expensive picks I think can actually hurt — the cost of being wrong here is a premium pick. The model recommends top-nine-round players the Board ranks behind the market by enough points to matter; the final list is mine.

Miami released Tua and handed the offense to Malik Willis, who has six career starts. A shakier passing game means defenses can crowd the box against exactly the kind of back Achane is.
Rookie tight end seasons this good almost never repeat. He's also dealing with the same groin injury that ended his 2025 season, and the Browns added more mouths to feed in the passing game.

Torn ACL and meniscus in Week 4 last season, a second cleanup surgery in May, and he's back at practice, and as of mid-August there's still no target date for his return.

2024 was the Pro Bowl year everyone remembers. In 2025 he never got back to full strength, finishing with 67 fewer carries and 400 fewer yards, and he turns 29 right after this season ends.
These are my picks. Many started as the model's calls — its backtest graded about 59% against a coin-flip floor of about 51% across the 2018–2025 drafts — and some are mine alone. All of them are mine to answer for: every pick is logged the day it publishes and graded when the season ends.
THE 2026 FILM ROOM · MY PICKS, MODEL-ASSISTED · EVERY PICK LOGGED ON PUBLISH AND GRADED AT SEASON’S END
Photo credits
Two players can share an ADP and be nothing alike. I measured how far a draft slot actually moves, by position and by round, across eight seasons.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026I priced every tight end pick against the guy you could have had for free. Only one range of the draft came back worth the pick.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026Everyone knows a 400-touch season breaks a running back. I measured it against seventeen years of data, and the thing everyone knows isn't there. Something else is.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026