Stone Cold FantasyStone ColdFantasy Football
17 DAYS
The Film Room · 2026

Bust Risks

Expensive picks I think can actually hurt — the cost of being wrong here is a premium pick. The model recommends top-nine-round players the Board ranks behind the market by enough points to matter; the final list is mine.

De'Von Achane
Lead call
RBDe'Von AchaneMIA

Miami released Tua and handed the offense to Malik Willis, who has six career starts. A shakier passing game means defenses can crowd the box against exactly the kind of back Achane is.

  • TEHarold Fannin Jr.CLE

    Rookie tight end seasons this good almost never repeat. He's also dealing with the same groin injury that ended his 2025 season, and the Browns added more mouths to feed in the passing game.

  • Malik Nabers
    WRMalik NabersNYG

    Torn ACL and meniscus in Week 4 last season, a second cleanup surgery in May, and he's back at practice, and as of mid-August there's still no target date for his return.

  • Josh Jacobs
    RBJosh JacobsGB

    2024 was the Pro Bowl year everyone remembers. In 2025 he never got back to full strength, finishing with 67 fewer carries and 400 fewer yards, and he turns 29 right after this season ends.

These are my picks. Many started as the model's calls — its backtest graded about 59% against a coin-flip floor of about 51% across the 2018–2025 drafts — and some are mine alone. All of them are mine to answer for: every pick is logged the day it publishes and graded when the season ends.

THE 2026 FILM ROOM · MY PICKS, MODEL-ASSISTED · EVERY PICK LOGGED ON PUBLISH AND GRADED AT SEASON’S END

Photo credits

More from the Film Room

All articles →