Nine games, 4.4 yards a carry, and he still finished as a top-16 back on a rookie ankle. Najee Harris is gone, the line's healthy, and Mike McDaniel just walked in the door. This is the easiest breakout call on the board.
Breakout Candidates
Players I think are on the verge of career-best production. The model scouts the measured profile — second- and third-year players who have never finished startable, holding a starting job — and I make the final calls.
WRLuther Burden IIICHIDJ Moore's target share just opened up in Chicago, and Burden was the most efficient rookie receiver in football when he actually saw the ball — 2.69 yards per route, best of any rookie by three quarters of a yard, and third among every receiver who ran 150. Ben Johnson said this offseason he's "buying Luther Burden stock right now."
WRRome OdunzeCHIDJ Moore's in Buffalo now, which means the 85 targets he was soaking up are just sitting there. Odunze led the Bears in receiving anyway — 661 yards on 90 targets before a foot injury ended his year after Week 13 — and Ben Johnson has publicly admitted the staff owes him better usage.
RBCam SkatteboNYGHalf a rookie year was the audition: 101 carries, five rushing scores, and three catches a game before the ankle ended his season at eight games. He's fully cleared now, and he's been the clear lead back all camp. The breakout case isn't a projection of new talent — it's the role he already held, played over seventeen weeks instead of eight.
A breakout pick is a profile bet, not a prediction: about 1 in 6 players fitting the model's profile break out, against about 1 in 30 for everyone else. These are my picks — mine to answer for, logged the day they publish and graded when the season ends.
THE 2026 FILM ROOM · MY PICKS, MODEL-ASSISTED · EVERY PICK LOGGED ON PUBLISH AND GRADED AT SEASON’S END
Photo credits
- Luther Burden III: photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
- Omarion Hampton: photo by All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
- Rome Odunze: photo by Cpl. Alexander Devereux, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
- Cam Skattebo: photo by utrhighlightvideos, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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